KSU Men’s Basketball Postmorten

Rewind

Kennesaw State finished the 2016-17 season with a 14-18 record overall, and 7-7 in conference. The 14 wins are a KSU D1 single season record, and are three more wins than last season, so by that alone, I would call this season a step forward! Then you add the A-Sun opening round road win vs. USC Upstate, and it furthers the success of the season.

The Owls were led by senior Kendrick Ray who averaged over 21 points per game and broke the KSU single season record for points in a season (and he missed a game too!). Also graduate student Aubrey Williams who averaged 13 and 11, and broke KSU’s D1 single season rebounding record. Junior Nick Masterson finished the season with an ABSURD 54.1 three point field goal percentage, currently good for #2 in the nation behind Marquette’s Markus Howard.

The biggest challenge KSU faced this season was losing a trio of seniors, most importantly team leader and point guard Yonel Brown. The development of Masterson and Williams, plus the incoming freshmen helped to negate the impact of Brown’s departure. Unfortunately for the Owls, they will now be set back yet again in 2017-18 with the losses of First Team All-Conference G Kendrick Ray and Second Team All-Conference F/C Aubrey Williams.

KSU brought in six freshmen this past season, five of whom got extensive playing time, which paid dividends late in the season and will also be important moving into the 2017-18 campaign.

Let’s examine next year’s roster (as of now)…

Starting Lineup (my best guess!)

PG: Tyler Hooker (Sophomore in 2017-18): The 6’0″ rail-thin point guard was a work in progress throughout the season, but the potential is there. He’s a very aggressive and tenacious player, and has the dog mentality, which is why he played such a key role late in many games. He exhibits tremendous quickness which can be a huge asset once he figures out how to best use it. Tyler will need to use the offseason to get stronger, and improve his shooting on every level (FT, 3PT, Midrange).

SG: James Scott (Sophomore in 2017-18): The 6’5″ scorer sat out the first half of the year trying to learn the offense and make a commitment to defense. When Scott got his chance, it was apparent from the first 5 minutes, that he just had “It”. He was KSU’s most highly touted recruit from the 2016 Class and it showed. Averaging 8.5 points in 15.4 minutes, Scott scored 33 in his first start for the injured Kendrick Ray. He exhibited a smooth stroke from outside, an inate ability to get to the rim, and also the ability to find the open man. James will easily be all-conference if he continues to progress and plays within the offense.

G: Nick Masterson (Senior in 2017-18): The sharp-shooter is almost all but guaranteed a spot in the starting 5. I’m not sure how he can top this season…but I hope he can find a way. Teams have to account for Masterson every second he’s on the floor…his presence alone is enough to dizzy a defense. ‘

F: Johannes Nielsen (Sophomore in 2017-18): The Great Dane, a 6’10” stretch four made his impact early on. He was the most game-ready of all the freshmen from day one. He faded a bit as the season went on, but he showed me enough to know he has a future in the starting lineup. The sneaky athletic Nielsen was money from 12-15 feet. Aside from much needed work in the weightroom, I’d like to see him work on putting the ball on the floor from the elbow, and also extending his range.

C: Zach Cameron (Sophomore in 2017-18): The 6’10” center was quite raw this year, but he passed the eye test when I looked into the crystal ball. He was more of a shot blocker and rebounder, but started displaying glimpses of offensive potential later in the year. I like his athleticism, range and willingness to compete. Like Nielsen, he will need to get in the weight room this offseason and really work with the coaches on expanding his post game, footwork and should try to make slight changes to eliminate the hitch in his jumper, for a quicker release. Once he starts gaining confidence in his offense, he’s going to take off quickly. 

Bench

G: Kyle Clarke (Junior in 2017-18): The 6’5″ point guard struggled for most of the year but came on strong at the end. He has shown an ability to get to the basket, and bully smaller guards near the hole. It’s absolutely VITAL for future playing time that Kyle gets his 15-18 foot jumper consistently better or teams will continue to play off of him.

F: Jordan Jones (Redshirt Senior in 2017-18): A 6’8″ rangy forward from Alpharetta is the last Owl to have been coached by former HC Lewis Preston. Jones needs to bring consistency to his game to get it to the next level. 

G/F: Anthony Wilson (Sophomore in 2017-18): An athletic 6’5″ G/F from Miami. His minutes throughout the season were more inconsistent than the other 4 freshmen. Anthony will need to improve his shooting at all levels, and work on adding his right hand to his repertoire, especially when finishing around the basket.

F/C: Isaac Mbuyamba (Sophomore in 2017-18): He played about 3 minutes all season…so it’s still too early to know what he can do. He’s very athletic, he’s big, he’s strong and certainly looks the part. He’s a maximum effort guy who will run through the wall in practice! Unfortunately, coming straight out of high school in Oregon, where he likely relied mostly on size and strength, he experienced a bit of a set back in learning the offense. Knowing the O will be the key to getting him on the floor, because the Owls will absolutely need him next year. I guess you could call “Big I” a boom or bust prospect!

F: Kosta Jankovic (Junior in 2017-18): A 6’7″ Croatian forward got minutes towards the end of the year when Jordan Jones had a concussion. Jankovic is limited by his athleticism, but is a good passer and if he can refine his jumper a bit, could be a really good bench asset.

G: Josh Burnett (Junior in 2017-18): 6’5″ guard started the season in the rotation, but once Scott started playing, his minutes completely disappeared. Burnett might be better served by dropping down to D2, because barring injury, I don’t see Masterson or Scott giving up their spots. Sometimes it’s all about opportunity.

F: Shazier Lawson (RS Sophomore in 2017-18): A 6’6″ forward who dressed out but didn’t play. Seems to be seen as either a developmental piece (hence the redshirt) or a really good practice player/teammate that KSU would like to have around an extra year.

C: Antonio Spencer (Freshman in 2017-18): The lone signee is a 6’9″ big from Duncanville HS in Texas. There are really no highlights and not much information on him. I do know that his career has been riddled with injuries up until his senior year. It’s hard to expect anything from a freshman big straight out of high school in low-major basketball.

G: 6’3″-6’5″ G (Freshman in 2017-18): Skinner’s staff is currently trying to find a big guard to add to the signing class.

Challenges Ahead

We can all agree KSU Basketball took a step forward in 2015-16, but when Brown, Pruitt and Morena graduated, the hardcore fans such as myself saw there would be a “step back before you can step forward” scenario. Here we are again a year later, same record, 7-7, but with an A-Sun playoff win to our name. This time we will be losing Ray and Williams, so another step back is most likely. The heir apparent to Ray is James Scott–I am confident that if he continues to develop, we can get by there without an enormous dropoff. The biggest question of the offseason is who replaces Aubrey Williams? The answer is likely going to have to be somebody on the roster with either Cameron or Mbuyamba. Not only did Williams rebound the ball on par with the best in the nation, but he also could score a bit around the basket. (The next questions become which bench players emerge to step in for the new starters?)

Next season we will have two seniors, three juniors and 6 sophomores. We’ll likely be treading water yet again trying to replace our veterans with young players and I expect another middling finish in conference. I’ll personally be prioritizing the development of our (likely) two future freshmen and our 6 rising sophomores next year, and I will be treating our record itself as secondary to individual and team development. 

The season that I have my eye on is the 2018-19 season. The 6 sophomores will be coming of age as upper classmen, and the entire roster will be Skinner’s players.

Expectations

I’ve done a lot of thinking lately about what constitutes success for this program. A lot depends on if you compare it to what the program WAS or if you throw all those failed seasons out the window and look at it with 2015-16 being the starting point. I’m trying to do the latter, by looking at how the team is being built, seeing how the pieces align in future years–and getting a full view of the puzzle. Each signee, each game, each season brings another piece of the puzzle to the table. The 2015-16 season raised expectations–which was awesome! But the baseline is now set at a 7-7 record and discernibly improving upon that in the next three seasons is the only goal from my point of view. 

Objectively, for much of the past two seasons, the Owls looked like a real basketball team, when one could reasonably argue that they haven’t for the majority of the past decade. The players for the most part knew what the objectives were on offense, and how to execute them. The defense and consistency could have been better, but it was a young team, and this is one reason why Skinner likes going for high school guys he can have for four years, instead of JUCOs/transfers (whether I question this philosophy is a discussion for another day.)

As I’ve said, these past two years were a success–no doubt, and I believe that we shouldn’t lower expectations for greatness based on the horrible history of our D1 era. As I’ve said, I’ve done a lot of thinking, and have had some good conversations with friends about what would be a successful run in the Skinner era…and after readjusting expectations to fit where the team is now, my expectation for the end of Skinner’s 5 year contract is to compete in (if not win) the A-Sun Championship Game by the end of the 2019-20 season. 

The more success a program has, the easier it will be to get talented players in the future (and more of them), and that’s how bad programs are built into good programs and good programs are built into great ones.

Source: ksuowlhowl.com
Link: KSU Men’s Basketball Postmorten